Can You Run for President Again After Impeachment

The second impeachment of Donald Trump, explained

Is conviction a real possibility? When volition the Senate trial exist — and can they even hold one?

By Updated January 13, 2021, vi:10pm EST

Business firm Democrats claim to have already locked down virtually unanimous support for impeachment.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump has ended his quaternary yr in office the same way he concluded his third twelvemonth: by being impeached by the House of Representatives — this fourth dimension for inciting his supporters who attacked the US Capitol on January 6.

House Democrats voted unanimously to impeach Trump, and 10 Republicans joined them, making this the most bipartisan presidential impeachment in US history, and making Trump the first president to exist impeached on two split up occasions.

Trump has, of class, been here before. The House of Representatives impeached him for alleged abuse of power and obstruction of Congress in Dec 2019, because of his efforts to pressure Ukraine'south government into investigating and then-Autonomous presidential candidate Joe Biden. But the Senate acquitted Trump on both counts in February 2020, falling well brusk of the two-thirds majority necessary to convict him and remove him from part. The verdict votes split nigh entirely along party lines, with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) being the sole Republican to vote to convict Trump on one count.

A major deviation this time around, though, is that impeachment proceedings are happening mere days before Trump'due south term in function expires. Though some Democrats have argued that Trump's immediate removal is a necessity, information technology's patently less of one if he's going to be gone in a calendar week anyway. And Mitch McConnell — still the Senate bulk leader until Georgia'south special ballot results are certified and Kamala Harris is sworn in as vice president — appear Wednesday that he will non beginning the Senate trial until January nineteen at the earliest.

Donald Trump is the first president to be impeached twice, this time for inciting his supporters who attacked the US Capitol.

Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

We will probable and so see the get-go impeachment trial of an ex-president — fifty-fifty though in that location is some dispute about whether the Constitution even allows such a thing. So the main question will shift from whether Trump should be removed from office to whether he should be banned from holding futurity federal function, effectively blocking him from running for president again in 2024.

But whenever a Senate trial might happen, getting two-thirds support in the Senate for conviction — which would require at least 17 Republican senators — remains a tall club. Recent anonymously sourced reports do claim McConnell is considering voting to convict Trump and hopes to apply the impeachment procedure to purge Trump from the party, simply his public rhetoric has been more tempered.

Meanwhile, Democrats are as well weighing the fearfulness that a long trial would delay both the confirmation of Biden'south nominees and the enactment of his legislative agenda, while making for a divisive start to a presidency he'd hoped would exist unifying.

What is impeachment?

Impeachment is the tool the US Constitution provides Congress to punish serious misconduct from the president. This misconduct can be treason or bribery, or it can fall into a vaguer, broader category of "other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."

The House of Representatives can vote to impeach a president with a simple bulk. But impeachment lone has no applied effect, other than boot the affair to the Senate, which must hold a trial. That trial ends with a vote on a verdict — but it takes two-thirds of the Senate, a supermajority, to convict the president.

If convicted, the president is removed from office, and the vice president would take power. Apart from removal from office, the Constitution allows i other punishment for a convicted president — disqualification from holding "whatsoever Part of honour, Trust or Turn a profit under the The states" in the time to come.

Iii US presidents have been impeached: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019. All were acquitted. A quaternary president, Richard Nixon in 1974, resigned to avoid near-sure impeachment and conviction.

How does impeachment piece of work in the Firm?

The House majority can run the process however it likes, as the Constitution grants the House the "sole Power of Impeachment." Evidentiary standards — and even the charges themselves — don't necessarily have to be grounded in law; information technology'southward all upwards to Congress to decide what matters.

In recent decades, the Firm has only tried to impeach presidents later lengthy investigations, including months of hearings, fact-gathering, and witness testimony. Nixon'due south well-nigh-impeachment was the culmination of Justice Section and congressional investigations of the Watergate break-in, Clinton's impeachment came afterwards a lengthy independent counsel investigation of various topics, and Trump's first impeachment came after a three-month congressional inquiry.

However, at that place is ane precedent for speedy action. In 1868, the House impeached President Andrew Johnson just iii days after he violated the Tenure of Part Act (a law they had passed to prevent him from firing the secretary of state of war). The House didn't even finalize impeachment manufactures until later on they had already impeached the president.

And then the House tin motility quite quickly on impeachment should its majority and leadership want to, and that's what did this calendar week.

What is the House impeaching Trump for, specifically?

The impeachment is a response to the attack on the Usa Capitol by Trump supporters that took identify final Wed.

Specifically, a resolution authored by Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI) and other key members of Congress impeaches Trump on one count: incitement of insurrection.

The article of impeachment alleges that Trump incited violence against the government of the United States. It recounts how, as members of Congress gathered to count the balloter votes that would make Biden'south victory official, Trump spoke to a large crowd, made false claims that he was the truthful winner, and urged them to "fight like hell."

"Thus incited past President Trump," the article continues, "members of the crowd he had addressed ... unlawfully breached and vandalized the Capitol, injured and killed police force enforcement personnel, menaced Members of Congress, the Vice President, and Congressional personnel, and engaged in other vehement, deadly, destructive, and seditious acts."

A pro-Trump mob breaks into the United states of america Capitol on Jan half dozen.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

A pro-Trump mob confronts Capitol Police afterwards the group stormed the building.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

The impeachment article also mentions Trump's "prior efforts to subvert and obstruct the certification of the results of the 2020 Presidential election," including Trump'due south request that Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger "detect" votes for him to alter the outcome in that location.

"In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the Usa and its institutions of Government," the article continues. "He threatened the integrity of the autonomous system, interfered with the peaceful transition of ability, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government. He thereby betrayed his trust every bit President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United states."

It concludes by asserting that Trump should be removed from office and disqualified from holding hereafter office.

Why is the Business firm impeaching Trump when he'll be out of role before long anyway?

This impeachment is an unusual ane because Trump has already lost reelection, and his term of role expires next calendar week. But Democrats offering several justifications for an impeachment push anyway.

First, they are merely irate about what happened, and think in that location should be consequences for Trump. Demands that Trump resign or be stripped of his presidential powers via the 25th Subpoena are now common in the caucus. But the reality is that Democrats can't make either of those things happen on their own, and neither appears likely at this signal (Trump clearly isn't resigning, and Vice President Mike Pence has said he won't invoke the 25th Amendment).

This leaves Business firm Democrats with impeachment. They tin't actually remove Trump from role through that means on their own, either — but they can impeach him and at least try for his removal, even if odds are again long in the Senate.

After the Capitol coup, Democrats want to get Trump out of office as quickly as possible.

Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Of grade, cutting against the "information technology's an emergency and he can't stay fifty-fifty one more day in office" narrative is the fact that the House did wait a full week later the insurrection to impeach him.

This has led others to contend that impeachment is necessary not simply because of what Trump has done, but also for fear of what might happen in the next week.

Will Trump try to pull something else — peradventure declaring martial law and ordering a new election, as his ally Michael Flynn has suggested? Yeah, he tepidly promised after the Capitol insurrection to respect the transition of power, but will he really stick with it? Some lawmakers fence that he tin't exist trusted to practice so, making his immediate removal necessary.

Some other possibility is that impeaching Trump now ways the Senate would exist in a position to act quickly if Trump truly crosses the Rubicon. Should the Senate already be in possession of the article declaring Trump a danger to commonwealth, the thinking goes, a trial — and a vote on removal — could be held immediately after Trump were to take some extreme action.

Finally, some agree out hope that this situation — Trump'southward incitement of a mob to endeavor to overturn the legitimate election results in a fashion that placed members of Congress in personal danger — has finally broken some Republicans from Trump irrevocably, and fabricated Senate conviction is a real possibility. And while removal from part would but shave a few days off Trump'due south presidency, a ban on him running in 2024 could reshape politics for years to come.

Wait, tin the Senate even agree an impeachment trial for a former president?

Experts who have looked at the question take been divided.

Some argue that a onetime president would be a private denizen, and that impeachment is not meant for individual citizens (if they commit misconduct, they should be charged in the ordinary legal system). Others point out that the penalty of being banned from future office is obviously quite relevant for former officeholders, too — and that it makes piffling sense for an impeached official to be able to evade that ban by resigning before their trial concludes. The Constitution contains no clear answers to these questions.

There is no direct precedent for impeachment of a former president. However, in 1876, Secretary of War William Belknap resigned just earlier the Business firm was going to impeach him, and the Senate proceeded with holding a trial for him anyhow. During his trial, the Senate voted that information technology did have jurisdiction to hold the trial of a former officer — though they did and so with just a bulk, not a two-thirds majority.

What seems likely is that the Senate will take a similar vote at some point on whether they have jurisdiction. If they make up one's mind they do, Trump will likely endeavor to challenge their decision in federal court. Some experts retrieve the Supreme Court would defer to Congress to handle the impeachment procedure as it wishes, simply others believe the Courtroom would want to give a clear ruling on the important ramble question of whether a former president can be banned from holding office again.

If the Senate holds a trial, when will it be, and what would it look similar?

This impeachment is coming at a time of transition for both the presidency and the Senate. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won terminal week'due south Georgia special elections, but since the results haven't been certified yet, they have not yet been sworn in, and Mitch McConnell is however the sleeping room'southward majority leader.

The deadline for Georgia to certify its results is on January 22, though Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger has said he hopes to get it done a bit earlier that. But if Warnock and Ossoff are sworn in while Trump is nevertheless president, the Senate would be split up 50-50 — and Vice President Pence would however exist around to break ties in Republicans' favor. So only afterward Harris is sworn in as vice president and Warnock and Ossoff are sworn in as senators will control of the sleeping accommodation flip to Democrats.

The issue is that, at least until January 20 and potentially for a few days after that, McConnell and Republicans still call the shots in the Senate. And while Republicans are in control, they get to determine whether to first the trial.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in the House Chamber during a reconvening of a articulation session of Congress on January 6.

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Last calendar week, in a memo obtained by the Washington Postal service's Seung Min Kim, McConnell took the position that, because the Senate is not scheduled to reconvene until January nineteen, he cannot reconvene the chamber for a trial before that unless no senator objects — and it seems likely at least one Trump-supporting Senate Republican would object. This, even so, was disputed by Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who pointed out that if he and McConnell both agree to do and so, they can reconvene the Senate on their ain.

Only on Wednesday, McConnell announced that he would not agree to reconvene the Senate early. He said in a argument that there was no way a trial could wrap up before Biden is sworn in, and that he idea national leaders should focus on ensuring a safe inauguration over the adjacent calendar week, rather than on an impeachment trial.

So Trump will probable be the offset old president to face an impeachment trial — and the bulk of the trial will likely unfold once Schumer is bulk leader.

Some Democrats, however, accept worried that the trial would have up so much Senate time that Biden'south nominee confirmations and legislative calendar would be delayed. (The recent practise has been that the Senate does non vote on other matters while a presidential impeachment trial is ongoing.) President-elect Biden recently wondered if the Senate could spend only half of each day on impeachment and the other half on his agenda. (Biden said Democrats inquired with the Senate parliamentarian and aren't yet sure.)

Can Trump actually exist bedevilled? Or is this impeachment doomed to end in an acquittal, similar the last i?

Though impeachment can pass (and has passed) the Firm with a unproblematic majority, 2-thirds of senators voting in favor would be necessary to actually convict Trump of impeachment charges.

Currently, there are 48 Senate Democrats, and that number volition rise to 50 once Warnock and Ossoff are sworn in. Even in one case their numbers improve, if there's unanimous Autonomous support to convict Trump, they'd need at least 17 Republicans to go forth.

And fifty-fifty later an attack on the Capitol that placed senators' lives in danger, that two-thirds threshold volition be very difficult to meet.

Most Republican senators have spent iv years defending and excusing Trump. Nearly all of them represent states Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, suggesting their constituents remain enthusiastic well-nigh him. And fifty-fifty those appalled by Trump's actions have an out to point to: that he's leaving office side by side week anyhow.

Senate Bulk Leader Mitch McConnell and Vice President Mike Pence walk through the Capitol Rotunda before the edifice was breached by Trump supporters.

Cheriss May/Getty Images

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), the sole Republican who voted for removal last fourth dimension, said on the night of the Capitol siege that he'southward not sure at that place's enough fourth dimension left for impeachment. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) has said he'd "consider" impeachment articles approved by the House, but didn't commit outright to backing them. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) have said they want Trump to resign but oasis't said they support impeachment and removal.

If you add Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who criticized Trump in an op-ed but won't reveal her views on impeachment, those are probably the five senators most likely to support removal, and none take committed to doing so. Fifty-fifty if they all did, and McConnell joins them, at least 11 more than Republican senators would be necessary also, and it's unclear who they would be.

Indeed, others have said they oppose impeachment, similar Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who said it would exercise "more impairment than expert," and Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), who warned Trump to "be very careful over the adjacent ten days" but said he should finish out his term.

Many of these Republicans would probable privately hold that Trump is a menace who should not be permitted to run again. (Those who program to run for president themselves in 2024 would probably be thrilled if Trump were banned from competing confronting them, even as they posture equally outraged.) The problem for Democrats and impeachment-curious Republicans is finding at to the lowest degree 17 who would agree to hold hands and leap together. And unless that trouble is solved, Trump will be on runway for his 2nd amortization.

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Source: https://www.vox.com/22223972/trump-impeached-house-senate-trial-former-president

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